Its tough for sales people to forecast. They want to tell the truth but they don't want to disappoint their boss or worse become exposed in fear they may lose their job. Here are the keys to success:
Managers:
1. Assume 50 % of your team's forecasts are off - research show over 50 % of sales people never hit their quota's so to assume 100% are correct sets yu0p everyone for a fall.
2. Ask questions around contingency plans such if one of your top 3 deals went away for budget reasons what are your plans to help supplement events like these that happen all the time.
Sales People:
1. Ask questions of your manager where they see your present level of work. Do NOT assume what you feel is successful is successful. The more you involve your managers speaks to your trust and your willingness to become a true sales pro!
2. Play with the numbers under numerous "what if" scenarios where specific deals are taken out of the equation to see how solid or vulnerable the forecasts is. If one deal goes away and the forecast plummets below 90 % is a very dangerous place to be.
Here is a recorded version of our weekly radio show "Ask the Coach" with Tim Hagen:
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/askthecoach2/2014/04/24/coaching-to-sales-peoples-forecasts